Commentary and Research Papers
2026
2026
April 2026 marked a powerful rebound in global equity markets, as sentiment shifted decisively from March’s risk-off tone to renewed optimism. The key catalyst was a de-escalation in Middle East tensions, including a temporary ceasefire involving Iran and the partial reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, which helped stabilize energy markets and reduce geopolitical uncertainty. As oil prices became less volatile, equities rallied sharply from their March lows, with major U.S. indices quickly recovering and, in many cases, approaching or reaching new highs.
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2026
2026
April was another volatile month for equities. Earnings season is in full-swing, and we have seen increased dispersion among equities. We’ve seen some stocks go up on strong prints and raised guidance, but we’ve also seen stocks stay flat or decline on similar news. We’re not trying to call an end, or even the end of the beginning of the Artificial Intelligence (AI) investment cycle, but it does appear to us that investors are becoming more cognizant of current value versus future earnings and cash flows.
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2026
2026
Global markets traded unevenly during the period as escalating geopolitical tensions with Iran evolved into open conflict, prompting several broad market indices to decline more than 10% from recent highs. While certain companies within the Sports Portfolio with direct exposure to the Middle East experienced near-term disruption, our U.S.-based sports franchise holdings were largely insulated from these developments, as expected.
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2026
2026
As if rapid technological obsolescence caused by Artificial Intelligence (AI) and private credit problems weren’t enough to worry about, investors now face new and perhaps permanent uncertainties in the Middle East. The outcome of these concerns is very difficult to foresee. However, this type of investing environment often reveals value and can increase the utility of picking individual stocks.
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2026
2026
The stock market started the year positively as strength in AI infrastructure related companies continued unabated into January. But February saw stocks pull back due to a weak jobs report, uncertainty related to the Supreme Court ruling against Trump tariffs, and rising tensions between the U.S. and Iran. The sell-off accelerated in March, as oil prices spiked above $100 a barrel and interest rates rose upon the outbreak of the Iran conflict, increasing the prospects for damage to the global economy.
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2026
2026
U.S. equity markets in March were dominated by a sharp rise in geopolitical risk, which became the primary driver of volatility throughout the month. The late February US-Israeli attack on Iranian military targets and the subsequent escalation of the conflict triggered a dramatic spike in oil prices - at one point surging above $115 per barrel - fueling fears of a renewed inflation shock and potential global growth slowdown.
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