Commentary and Research Papers
2025
2025
We began our March update with the following: “… long-term investors earn their returns by staying invested in good companies through market volatility. Every market crisis is different, but history suggests that this is unlikely to be a good time for long-term investors to shift a long-term investment strategy heavily into cash”. That short bit of conventional wisdom is easier said than done, but it turned out to be on the money. “Liberation Day” was more like “Capitulation Day”, and the equity market came out of that short but sharp panic to produce one of the fastest recoveries in history.
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2025
2025
Stocks rallied for a second consecutive month in June, fueled by easing trade tensions, resilient economic data, and cooling inflation. A major catalyst came from a breakthrough in U.S.–China trade relations: the U.S. relaxed restrictions on semiconductor chip exports, while China agreed to resume rare earth exports to American buyers. This de-escalation reassured investors and contributed to growing optimism that the U.S. economy is headed for a soft landing - marked by moderate growth, low inflation, and no recession. On the economic front, the June jobs report exceeded expectations, with payroll gains and a drop in the unemployment rate to 4.1%. Wage growth remained solid, supporting retail sales and broader consumer spending. Meanwhile, the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), a monthly survey of manufacturing purchasing managers, remained in expansion territory, extending the manufacturing sector’s recovery from its three-year slump between 2022 and 2024.
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2025
2025
Equity markets rebounded strongly in the second quarter, recouping losses from Q1. Trump’s aggressive stance on tariffs and trade, which heightened fears of recession in the first quarter, culminated with the highly anticipated and shocking ‘Liberation Day’ reciprocal tariffs on April 2, which were far higher than anyone expected. Looking backwards, the sharply negative market reaction to this tariff announcement marked ‘peak uncertainty’ and the market’s low point. Stocks began a rebound, which gained steam through the quarter end after the administration announced a 90-day delay in tariff implementation to provide time for negotiation.
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Commentary and Research Papers
2025
2025
Oil and natural gas prices have been mixed amid production increases and worries about the global economy, but energy equities appear to have found their footing recently. Pinnacle’s Jack Bocock weighs in on several Energy Sector stocks that may present a favorable risk/reward opportunity in the latest article in U.S. News & World Report.
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2025
2025
Stocks were strong in May, driven by easing trade tensions, lower-than-expected inflation readings and increasing investor optimism. After bottoming in mid-April, when the S&P 500, NASDAQ and the Russell 2000 all entered bear market territory of -20% from their highs, stocks have been on a tear. The S&P has risen 22% off of its intraday lows in April, the NASDAQ +29% and the Russell 2000 +19% through the end of May. Once again, those bearish market-timing commentators shouting “sell!” in the midst of trade uncertainty and oversold market conditions in mid-April have been proven wrong, while investors with a patient, fundamentally driven posture were proven right….at least through the end of May.
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2025
2025
Sell in May and go away? Not this year. The market reacted positively to “revised” tariff demands and earnings results were better-than-feared. Small capitalization indices (and the Pinnacle SCV portfolio) are still down year-to-date, but the market had a good month. The portfolio was up strongly, benefiting from overall good earnings and, specifically, from a rebound in energy/AI/datacenter interest. We continue to believe that expectations for small capitalization value stocks remain (highly) muted.
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Founded in 1984, Pinnacle Associates, Ltd. is a forward thinking, multi-billion dollar investment advisory firm focused on transparency and putting clients first. We provide advice to individuals and families, institutional investors and other financial institutions.
