Commentary and Research Papers
October 15, 2025
2025
Stocks delivered another positive month in September, defying the historical weakness often associated with the month. The rally was fueled by expectations of Federal Reserve easing (including a 25-basis-point rate cut mid month), strong reported corporate earnings and increasingly positive earnings revisions, and continued investor appetite for technology stocks, especially those related to artificial intelligence (AI) and semiconductors.
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October 28, 2025
2025
Markets continued their upward trend in the third quarter, building on what has already been a strong year for investors. The major U.S. equity indices all posted solid gains: the S&P 500 rose 7.8%, the Dow added 5.2%, the Nasdaq gained 11.2%, and the small-cap Russell 2000 advanced 12.0%, marking its best quarter since late 2023. Several indices reached new record highs in September, underscoring the resilience of market sentiment despite the growing complexity of the economic outlook.
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November 4, 2025
2025
We began our March update with the following: “… long-term investors earn their returns by staying invested in good companies through market volatility. Every market crisis is different, but history suggests that this is unlikely to be a good time for long-term investors to shift a long-term investment strategy heavily into cash”. That short bit of conventional wisdom is easier said than done, but it turned out to be on the money. “Liberation Day” was more like “Capitulation Day”, and the equity market came out of that short but sharp panic to produce one of the fastest recoveries in history.
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August 19, 2025
2025
We began our March update with the following: “… long-term investors earn their returns by staying invested in good companies through market volatility. Every market crisis is different, but history suggests that this is unlikely to be a good time for long-term investors to shift a long-term investment strategy heavily into cash”. That short bit of conventional wisdom is easier said than done, but it turned out to be on the money. “Liberation Day” was more like “Capitulation Day”, and the equity market came out of that short but sharp panic to produce one of the fastest recoveries in history.
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August 19, 2025
2025
Stocks rallied for a second consecutive month in June, fueled by easing trade tensions, resilient economic data, and cooling inflation. A major catalyst came from a breakthrough in U.S.–China trade relations: the U.S. relaxed restrictions on semiconductor chip exports, while China agreed to resume rare earth exports to American buyers. This de-escalation reassured investors and contributed to growing optimism that the U.S. economy is headed for a soft landing - marked by moderate growth, low inflation, and no recession. On the economic front, the June jobs report exceeded expectations, with payroll gains and a drop in the unemployment rate to 4.1%. Wage growth remained solid, supporting retail sales and broader consumer spending. Meanwhile, the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), a monthly survey of manufacturing purchasing managers, remained in expansion territory, extending the manufacturing sector’s recovery from its three-year slump between 2022 and 2024.
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August 19, 2025
2025
Equity markets rebounded strongly in the second quarter, recouping losses from Q1. Trump’s aggressive stance on tariffs and trade, which heightened fears of recession in the first quarter, culminated with the highly anticipated and shocking ‘Liberation Day’ reciprocal tariffs on April 2, which were far higher than anyone expected. Looking backwards, the sharply negative market reaction to this tariff announcement marked ‘peak uncertainty’ and the market’s low point. Stocks began a rebound, which gained steam through the quarter end after the administration announced a 90-day delay in tariff implementation to provide time for negotiation.
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